Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Wichita St. 99.9%   4   26 - 5 16 - 2 26 - 5 16 - 2 +15.1      +9.8 9 +5.3 31 69.2 125 +13.6 18 +15.7 1
28 Creighton 100.0%   7   28 - 5 14 - 4 28 - 5 14 - 4 +11.2      +11.9 2 -0.6 188 69.8 114 +14.1 15 +11.5 2
89 Northern Iowa 1.4%   18 - 13 9 - 9 18 - 13 9 - 9 +5.5      +2.3 109 +3.2 82 60.3 311 +6.1 84 +3.9 7
97 Missouri St. 0.0%   15 - 16 9 - 9 15 - 16 9 - 9 +5.0      +1.7 128 +3.3 78 62.1 285 +3.4 123 +4.0 6
101 Illinois St. 0.0%   20 - 13 9 - 9 20 - 13 9 - 9 +4.8      +3.2 93 +1.6 127 63.4 269 +5.0 99 +4.0 5
113 Evansville 0.0%   15 - 15 9 - 9 15 - 15 9 - 9 +3.8      +5.0 56 -1.1 208 69.9 111 +2.8 136 +4.1 4
130 Drake 0.0%   16 - 15 9 - 9 16 - 15 9 - 9 +2.5      -0.8 193 +3.3 77 67.9 159 +3.8 118 +4.3 3
132 Indiana St. 0.0%   17 - 14 8 - 10 17 - 14 8 - 10 +2.4      -0.4 177 +2.8 94 65.2 231 +4.2 106 +2.8 8
217 Southern Illinois 0.0%   8 - 22 5 - 13 8 - 22 5 - 13 -3.0      -1.9 230 -1.1 206 67.2 176 -3.9 233 -1.3 9
256 Bradley 0.0%   7 - 25 2 - 16 7 - 25 2 - 16 -5.6      -5.2 290 -0.4 182 72.8 53 -6.1 265 -7.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wichita St. 1.0 100.0
Creighton 2.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 3.0 100.0
Missouri St. 3.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Evansville 3.0 100.0
Drake 3.0 100.0
Indiana St. 8.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 9.0 100.0
Bradley 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 16 - 2 100.0
Creighton 14 - 4 100.0
Northern Iowa 9 - 9 100.0
Missouri St. 9 - 9 100.0
Illinois St. 9 - 9 100.0
Evansville 9 - 9 100.0
Drake 9 - 9 100.0
Indiana St. 8 - 10 100.0
Southern Illinois 5 - 13 100.0
Bradley 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wichita St. 100.0% 100.0
Creighton
Northern Iowa
Missouri St.
Illinois St.
Evansville
Drake
Indiana St.
Southern Illinois
Bradley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wichita St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 4   0.6 2.5 18.6 38.1 30.4 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Creighton 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.1 0.9 11.6 28.8 28.6 19.6 9.4 1.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 98.6 1.4%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 75.6% 47.4% 21.1% 10.3% 4.6% 1.8%
Creighton 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 55.5% 19.6% 7.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Northern Iowa 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 0.1 98.5 1.4
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.1 99.4 0.5
2nd Round 89.4% 1.3 10.6 47.6 41.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 58.0% 0.7 42.0 49.0 9.0
Elite Eight 27.0% 0.3 73.0 25.5 1.4
Final Four 12.6% 0.1 87.4 12.4 0.2
Final Game 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
Champion 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1